Antarctica, and ultimately Earth as a whole, is likely to experience negative changes, a conclusion which could be drawn from a presentation held at the Arboretum Centre on Jan. 12. The presentation was given at a meeting of the Guelph Field Naturalists by its president, Peter Kelly, who once taught at the University of Guelph.

This presentation began by briefly describing Antarctica’s history. From its discovery in 1820 until the mid-20th century the continent was the site of whaling, which decimated its whale population. Currently an international treaty restricts whaling in the Southern Ocean, which surrounds Antarctica, for scientific purposes. One signatory country, Japan, is alleged to have abused the scientific purpose stipulation as Kelly claimed that “these ‘scientific’ whale samples show up in restaurants.”

Another international law, the Antarctic Treaty, has prohibited mining and military activity–among other environmentally damaging activities– in Antarctica since its enactment in 1959. Currently the treaty has been signed by 47 countries, which Kelly stated encompass the only ones with the ability to commit these activities in Antarctica. He responded to allegations that Russia is illegally engaging in oil extraction by saying it’d be a “slippery slope” for Antarctica’s environmental health if that activity occurred.

Overall, the presentation focused on the impact of climate change on Antarctica with a particular focus on the region Kelly visited as a tourist in 2003, the Antarctic Peninsula. That region features the highest concentration of wildlife in Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula is estimated to be warming at a rate three to five times faster than the rest of the planet.

The continuing depletion of the ozone layer over Antarctica allows winds to circulate around the continent and warm the coastline, which melts sea ice, lessening Antarctica’s defense from the waves that warm it. The increase in storms climate change entails will increase the amount of waves hitting and subsequently warming Antarctica.

The presence of sea ice is vital to the survival of animals in Antarctica. Krill– shrimp-like animals– only reside in sea ice and are the basis of the Antarctic ecosystem, according to Kelly, as virtually all animals in Antarctica consume krill or other animals that consume krill. One scientist estimates that half of all krill in Antarctica are eaten every year.

“The less sea ice you have, the less krill you have, and then you start to see declines in the populations of other organisms that live there,” Kelly remarked. He also noted that a decline in sea ice would prevent birds (excluding penguins) from conducting migrations to other continents, as fewer places would be available for them to rest during their flying migration. The amount of sea ice in Antarctica has already declined by 40 per cent in the last 25 years.

Penguins, arguably Antarctica’s most famous animal, could be threatened in the future. Some estimates claim that two-thirds of penguin colonies could collapse if the average world temperature rises by two degrees. Kelly predicts that “overall, all penguin species are going to decline” if climate change continues.

One of the four species of penguins that reside in Antarctica have already experienced a population decline –Adelie penguins are estimated to have declined by 33 per cent in the last 25 years. Adelie penguins generally reside farther south than other penguin species in the summer, although winters are spent on sea ice.

Because of its warming temperatures the summer residency area of the Adelie penguins has seen an increase in Gentoo penguins which increases competition for food. Regions to the south of the Adelie penguins’ summer residency area have become colder, preventing Adelie penguins from relocating there.

Kelly emphasized that ultimately every continent will be negatively affected by climate change’s effects on one continent alone. He concluded that less ice “is not good for us as well. Global sea levels will rise significantly.”

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